Bitcoin is frozen. Despite a U.S. jobs report that virtually guarantees a Federal Reserve rate cut, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is stuck around $110,000. What should have been rocket fuel turned into dead air. The old playbook—bad news for the economy equals good news for Bitcoin—just broke.
ChainStreet’s Brief
- The Broken Catalyst: A weak U.S. jobs report all but ensures a Fed cut—but Bitcoin failed to rally, signaling the move was already priced in.
- The Trader’s View: Institutional desks are taking profits, ETF flows have stalled, and a Fed cut may even read bearish if it screams economic weakness.
- The Believer’s View: Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are collapsing to multi-year lows—a classic accumulation trend that points to a looming supply shock.
When Good News Isn’t Good Enough
Friday’s U.S. jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by just 22,000 versus expectations of 75,000. That makes a Fed rate cut this week a near certainty. Under the old logic, Bitcoin should have surged. Instead, it barely moved.
“The market had already priced in policy easing,” said Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst at BTC Markets. The bigger drag, she explained, is profit-taking. “Institutional desks are selling into strength while ETF flows remain flat.” The result: every spark of momentum gets smothered.
Others see a darker read. A rate cut isn’t bullish if it looks like a panic button. “A cut may reflect weakness, while sticky inflation and fragile risk sentiment cap risk appetite,” Vincent Liu, CIO of Kronos Research, told The Block. Without renewed ETF inflows, he added, “$120K+ remains a tough barrier.”
Conviction Below the Surface
While macro funds stall the rally, on-chain metrics tell another story. Exchange reserves keep falling to multi-year lows as investors yank coins into cold storage. It’s one of the clearest signs of accumulation.
For long-term holders, this is the opportunity: stack during consolidation, wait for supply to dry up, then ride the next wave higher. The price may be flat, but the structure of the market is shifting under the surface.
ChainStreet’s Take
Bitcoin’s $110,000 stasis is a fragile equilibrium. On one side are short-term traders treating BTC as just another risk asset; on the other are believers systematically draining liquid supply.
The question is which force breaks first. Does profit-taking drive Bitcoin under $104,000? Or does relentless accumulation choke the market into the kind of supply squeeze that lights the next rally? The answer will define the rest of the year.
