A new financial analysis posits that Strategy Inc.’s Bitcoin accumulation model faces a structural liquidity crisis by the first quarter of 2026. The report, authored by independent researcher Shanaka Anslem Perera, argues that Strategy faces a $48B ‘Ponzi’ liquidity trap due to a misalignment between its operating income and its debt service obligations.
Arguments for Structural Instability of Strategy
The analysis, titled “When Corporate Finance Meets Monetary Physics,” based its conclusion on the company’s Q3 2025 financial disclosures. The report noted that Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) held approximately 3.26% of the total Bitcoin supply (649,870 BTC), acquired for roughly $48.37 billion.
Perera’s report contrasted these holdings against the company’s cash flow fundamentals. The analysis observed that Strategy Inc. generated negative operating cash flow of $45.6 million over the first nine months of 2025.
During the same period, the firm faced estimated annual preferred stock dividend obligations of between $640 million and $700 million. The report contended that with only $54 million in cash on hand reported in Q3, the company was reliant on external capital raising to meet obligations.
“This is Ponzi finance by definition: borrowing to pay the interest on prior borrowing,” Perera stated, applying economist Hyman Minsky’s classification of unstable credit cycles.
Preferred Stock Volatility
The research highlighted specific risks associated with the company’s Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC). The document explained that the security was structured to maintain a $100 par value by adjusting dividend rates inversely to the stock price.
Perera noted that dividend rates increased from 9.0% in July 2025 to 10.5% in November. The analysis argued that this mechanism created an uncapped liability: if the stock price declined further, the dividend yield required an increase to attract buyers, thereby accelerating the company’s cash burn rate.
The Q1 2026 Index Catalyst
The report identified January 15, 2026, as a critical date for the company’s capital model. It stated that MSCI was expected to announce the results of a consultation on whether to exclude companies with significant digital asset concentrations from its equity indices.
Given that Strategy Inc.’s assets were composed of 77% Bitcoin, Perera projected the company would face mechanical exclusion under the proposed criteria. The report estimated this would trigger between $2.8 billion and $8.8 billion in forced selling by index-tracking funds, potentially compressing the stock’s premium to Net Asset Value (NAV).
Liquidity Constraints of Strategy
While management had previously stated the company possessed “71 years of dividend coverage” based on the potential sale of Bitcoin holdings, Perera challenged this assessment by citing market data from the October 10, 2025, correction. The report observed that during the 17% price decline in October, order book depth across major exchanges contracted by over 90%.
Perera argued that Strategy faces a $48B ‘Ponzi’ liquidity trap precisely because the market lacked the depth to absorb institutional-scale selling without significantly impacting the asset price.
Chain Street’s Take
Strategy Inc.’s $48.4 billion Bitcoin treasury, about 3.26% of total supply, faces a liquidity trap, according to Perera. Negative cash flow, $54 million in reserves, and $640–700 million in annual preferred dividends force the company to raise capital just to cover obligations, a setup Perera calls Ponzi finance.
Its Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock increases dividends when the price falls below $100, risking forced Bitcoin sales that could destroy the equity premium. MSCI’s January 15, 2026 index decision, expected to exclude firms with over 50% digital assets, could trigger $2.8–8.8 billion in forced selling.
The October 2025 market crash showed that large-scale liquidation would collapse order books and crush prices. Under this model, Strategy may not survive Q1 2026 without restructuring or deleveraging.
