Bitcoin approaches its fourth death cross of the current cycle, flashing what many traders interpret as a bearish signal but what history suggests could be the strongest buy indicator in months.
Bitcoin Death Cross Signals Buy Opportunity, Not Crash
The technical pattern emerges as Bitcoin trades near $95,800, down more than 20% from its $126,000 peak reached earlier this year. James Van Straten, CoinDesk Senior Analyst, highlighted the formation on November 11, noting the death cross will complete within days as the 50-day moving average crosses beneath the 200-day moving average.
But rather than signaling doom, the pattern historically marked major bottoms. The previous three death crosses occurred in September 2023, August 2024, and April 2025. Each time, Bitcoin bottomed at or near the crossover point before rallying between 75% and 213%.
“Bitcoin is about to have its fourth death cross of the cycle,” Van Straten wrote on X. “Each one has marked a major bottom.”
Historical Performance After Bitcoin Death Cross Events
The track record speaks for itself. In September 2023, Bitcoin formed a death cross near $25,000 and subsequently rallied 213% to reach $78,250.
The August 2024 death cross occurred at $49,000, preceding a 75% surge to $86,000.
Most recently, April 2025’s death cross coincided with tariff-induced panic that pushed Bitcoin from $120,000 to $74,000.
The asset bottomed precisely on the day of the crossover before recovering.
Crypto analyst Sykodelic, who maintains a dataset spanning seven years of death cross patterns dating to the 2017 bull run, projects Bitcoin could find its local bottom within the next five days. The analyst estimates a potential floor near $95,000 before a reversal targets $145,000.
“Bitcoin is going to rally to at least $145,000 from here,” Sykodelic stated on November 10. “And there is a 99% chance it will find at least its local bottom in the next 5 days.”
The only exception to the buy signal pattern occurred in 2022, when a death cross in February preceded a 64% collapse to $15,500 by mid-year. That crossover coincided with the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hike cycle, draining liquidity from risk assets during a macro environment drastically different from today’s conditions.
On-Chain Data Confirms Bottom Formation
Beyond technical patterns, on-chain metrics reinforce the bottoming thesis. Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) currently sits at 0.476, according to CoinCare market analysis.
During previous bull cycles, short-term bottoms consistently formed whenever NUP fell below 0.50. The amount of Bitcoin held at a loss reached 5.64 million BTC on November 5, when the asset dipped to $98,966 for the first time since April.
CryptoQuant data shows similar spikes in loss positions marked previous cycle lows in mid-2024. Market sentiment metrics flash extreme fear.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 10, its lowest reading in over three years. Historical analysis by crypto analyst Max Crypto reveals that when the index falls below 20, Bitcoin averaged six-month returns exceeding 68% in neutral conditions and higher during extreme fear phases.
ETF Inflows Continue Despite Price Weakness
Institutional demand remains robust despite the technical breakdown. Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows exceeding $524 million in a single session earlier this week, demonstrating that professional investors view current levels as accumulation opportunities rather than distribution zones.
Analysts note that $100,000 represents critical support, combining the 50% Fibonacci retracement level with significant institutional buying interest. A definitive break below this level could push Bitcoin toward the $91,000 to $95,000 range before a reversal.
Critics point out that market sentiment differs from previous death crosses. During earlier formations, investors aggressively bought dips.
Currently, a growing contingent believes Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has peaked, with some analysts projecting deeper retracements to $72,000 or lower if the $100,000 support fails.
Technical analyst Colin Talks Crypto observed that the death cross triggered precisely as Bitcoin touched the lower boundary of its expanding megaphone pattern, a scenario projected weeks in advance with mid-November marked as the critical window.
“This setup was projected weeks in advance, with mid-November marked as the window to watch,” Colin explained. “Right on schedule, Bitcoin has landed precisely where the analysis suggested it would.”
Chain Street’s Take
The contrarian setup is compelling. Three consecutive death crosses produced false bearish signals, each marking local bottoms before substantial rallies.
Current on-chain data, sentiment extremes, and institutional accumulation align with historical bottoming patterns. The critical variable remains whether macro conditions mirror 2022’s liquidity drain or 2023-2024’s recovery environment.
Bulls need a definitive weekly close above $103,500 to invalidate the breakdown. Until then, the risk-reward favors patient accumulation near structural support levels.
